As an investor, you probably pay attention to nominal return, which is the percentage increase or decrease in the value of an investment over a given period of time, usually expressed as an annual return. However, to estimate actual income or growth potential in order to target financial goals — for example, a certain level of retirement income — it’s important to consider the effects of taxes and inflation. The remaining increase or decrease is your real return.
Let’s say you want to purchase a bank-issued certificate of deposit (CD) because you like the lower risk and fixed interest rate that a CD can offer. Rates on CDs have risen, and you might find a two- or three-year CD that offers as much as 2.5% interest. That could be appealing, but if you’re taxed at the 22% federal income tax rate, roughly 0.55% will be gobbled up by federal income tax on the interest.
That still leaves an interest rate of 1.95%, but you should consider the purchasing power of the interest. Annual inflation was about 2% from 2016 to 2018, and the 30-year average was 2.5%.1 After factoring in the effect of inflation, the real return on your CD investment could approach zero and may turn negative if inflation rises. If so, you might lose purchasing power not only on the interest but also on the principal.
This hypothetical example doesn’t represent the performance of any specific investment, but it illustrates the importance of understanding what you’re actually earning after taxes and inflation. In some cases, the lower risk offered by an investment may be appealing enough that you’re willing to accept a low real return. However, pursuing long-term goals such as retirement generally requires having some investments with the potential for higher returns, even if they carry a higher degree of risk.
The FDIC insures CDs and bank savings accounts, which generally provide a fixed rate of return, up to $250,000 per depositor, per insured institution. All investments are subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2019 (December year-over-year change in CPI-U)